Saturday, November 29, 2014

Forcing turnovers benefitting both defense and offense

(Photo by Jason Miller/Getty Images)
Coming into this season, the Cleveland Cavaliers defense was questioned over and over and over again, wondering whether it would hamper their chances of winning an NBA championship.

So far this season, it's been a roller coaster ride for the defensive, going from okay, to really bad, to okay again in just one month. From where we stand right now, their average defense has been surprisingly average, specifically playing well over their last two games.

If you haven't checked yet, the Cavaliers currently rank 17th in defensive rating. At first glance, that might not look sexy, but from where the Cavaliers were a week ago, that's pretty impressive. Not much has changed from how low they were a week ago, but they are doing something that the Miami Heat did well over the last three years with LeBron James: forcing turnovers.

Over the last two games, the Cavaliers have had defensive ratings of 98.5 (good) and 84.0 (really good), while also allowing fewer than 90 points in each game. The reason they've been able to have these spectacular numbers are due to the amount of turnover they have forced. In those same two games from above, the Cavaliers have forced 36 turnovers, good for a turnover percentage of exactly 20.

The most surprising aspect of this trend is the guy who has been at the helm of the havoc: Kyrie Irving.

Irving has been criticized for his defense ever since he's entered the league. But so far this season, his defense has been a huge improvement, even himself asking to have a bigger role on that end. The increased role has paid off, as he has averaged 3.0 steals per game over the last two, and 1.8 per game for the entire season, which ranks 11th among all NBA players. If he can keep up this defensive effort, he will help shadow over the glaring weakness that Cleveland has.

The turnovers aren't just helping the defense, it has helped their high-powered offense. Of those 36 turnovers, they have turned them into 49 points, good for 22.4 percent of their 219 points scored during that stretch. To put that number in perspective, the Philadelphia 76ers lead the league with 20.3 percent of their points coming off of turnovers.

However, this isn't just a sample of their last two games: this has been their theme in every game so far this season. Take a look at the graph below:
The turnovers per game is slightly higher in wins, but just take look at the difference in points scored off of turnovers; almost seven points per game higher!

That seven-point difference has been the result of their level of intensity, which has been extremely high over the last two games (both wins) and also during their three-game winning streak two weeks ago. When the Cavaliers get lazy on the defensive end, as they did during their four-game losing streak, the turnovers decrease and opportunities to score off of them go down as well.

Unless there is a trade made for big man, the Cavaliers interior defense will be one of the worst in the league. As it stands, opponents are shooting 64.4 percent inside of five feet of the basket, second-worst in the league. That is why the turnovers will be huge for Cleveland going forward, helping them hide their weak spot on that end of the court.

As for the offense, the turnovers will create easy fast break chances for guys like LeBron James, Irving and even Dion Waiters, who are virtually unstoppable in the open court. They still have things to work out offensively, and nothing can get things going like easy buckets, which will come off the turnovers they force.

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