Thursday, April 9, 2015

Making the Case For (And Against) Tristan Thompson for Sixth Man of the Year

Photo by Jason Miller/Getty Images

2015 has been a great year for individual award races.

The MVP race is the closest it has been since 2007, with five (two, more realistically) players having the chance to win the award.

Both Rookie of the Year and Defensive Player of the Year have a wide range of options to choose from, with different players picking up steam for each of these two awards as the season goes on.

Heck, even Coach of the Year is a toss-up.

And then there is Sixth Man of the Year, also known as the "award that no one is talking about."

No one player (or players) has stood out and took charge in this race, leaving us with no clue as to who could win this award.

However, Grantland's Zach Lowe did throw one name in the ring.


With that being said, why not Thompson?

Although he has not been the flashy scorer that normally brings home this award, he has quietly been one of the best guys to come off the bench for any team this year. His scoring numbers have been down, but all of his other numbers have been right around career averages.

So with no true candidate this year, let's try and make the case for (and against) Thompson.

The Case For

Thompson is one of the best offensive rebounders in the league, ranking fourth overall in the league in offensive rebounding percentage and and fifth overall in offensive rebounds per game, while leading the league in both for bench players. This one true skill (offensive rebounding) he has goes under the radar to most, that's what makes him so important on the offensive end.

His impact on the offensive glass is noticeable, as Thompson turns the Cavs into one of the best offensive rebounding teams when he is on the court. When Thompson plays, the Cavs would rank third in offensive rebounding percentage, just barely behind Utah and Oklahoma City. When Thompson sits, the Cavs would drop all the way 19th.

But for Thompson this year, his impact on offense has gone deeper than just being an energy guy who can grab plenty of rebounds. Because Thompson's offensive role has been limited this year, that doesn't mean he hasn't been as effective. He is shooting a career-high 54.5 percent from the field, almost seven percent higher than his previous high.

The increase of his efficiency is in part to his improved shot selection. Thompson has never been a great shooter, he has taken charge in making sure most of his shots have come around the rim. This year, he has taken 88 percent of his shots around the rim, nearly 18 points higher than the last year.

Although he has never been a great finisher either, he has been effective at finishing alley-oops better than in previous years. Alongside Timofey Mozgov, Thompson has vaulted the Cavs up the rankings as the league leaders in alley-oops since Jan. 9, nearly doubling the Los Angeles Clippers, also known as Lob City.

The Case Against

As good as the numbers have been for Thompson this year, they don't necessarily match the qualifications of the previous 32 winners of this award. Of those winners, only three have finished with less than 10 points per game, something that Thompson is currently doing right now. If Thompson were to win, his 8.4 points per game would be the second-lowest for a Sixth Man Award winner.

Points aren't just the only thing that are holding Thompson back, as the his on-and-off splits are not the best among those who is currently up against.



Looking at the chart, the Cavs are barely better with Thompson on the court than when he is off the court, well behind Williams and Iguadola, both whom are wing players.

This, alongside his position, will be the biggest detractor in Thompson's chances of winning the award. Because wing players traditionally dominate this award, Thompson would have needed a drastic net rating to overcome what he lacks in the race.

Positionally, voters tend to vote for wing players for this award, putting another obstacle in Thompson's path the Sixth Man of the Year. The last ten award winners have played on the wing, including teammate J.R. Smith, who won the award in 2013. The last post player to win this award was Antawn Jamison, and he would be more favorable towards Speights than Thompson.

The Verdict

Based on the past winners, it's going to be a very steep climb for Thompson to win this award. Luckily for him, no one else is stood out at this point, leaving the door open for Thompson to sneak in there and take the trophy.

Right now I'd say there's less than a 10 percent chance that he does win this award, but as this season has shown us, anything can happen.

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