In both of the match-ups between these two, it was the bench that loomed large for each victory. Lou Williams put up a career-high 34 points off the bench in the first game, part of a 51-19 effort the Raptor's bench put over the Cavalier's. In the second game, it was Tristan Thompson's monster effort (21 points, 14 rebounds) that sparked the Cavaliers to their win in Toronto. Cleveland is coming off of it's best performance by the second unit, when the bench scored a season-high 59 points in a blowout win over the Brooklyn Nets.
The Number
96.6
That's the Cavalier's defensive rating during their current seven-game winning streak, which would rank third in the league over the course of the season. This current trend on defense has vaulted Cleveland from 27th to 14th in defensive rating. I don't see them getting into the top-five just yet, but it's progress that was desperately needed.
The Playlist
Why Cleveland will win:
It starts and ends with the bench. If the Cavaliers can get any type of bench production, they are virtually unbeatable. Just look at last night for example: the Big 3 scored their fewest combined points of the season (44), yet they still won 22 points. LeBron James, Kevin Love and Kyrie Irving will all have better nights, but it will be the bench that propels them to victory tonight.
Why Toronto will win:
Kyle Lowry has been on a tear ever since DeMar DeRozan went down with an injury, averaging 26.0 points and 9.6 assists per game. But if the Raptors want to win, they need more than just him to produce. Which brings us to their combination of big men: Jonas Valanciunas, Amir Johnson and Patrick Patterson. If all three of them can have big games, it will be hard for the Cavaliers to overcome that.
The Prediction
Cleveland 115, Toronto 99
Just because the Raptors have the best record in the Eastern Conference, doesn't necessarily mean they are the best team in the conference. After starting the season 13-2, Toronto has went 3-3 in their last six games and have looked more like the team I expected them to be. Combine that with a better game from the Big 3 and the bench continuing to look good, I expect the Cavaliers to cruise to their eight straight victory and inch closer to the No. 1 seed in the East.
Irving has played incredible over the last four games, including a 37-point performance against the Knicks, while Lowry has stepped up his game since Demar DeRozan went down with an injury. Lowry was key in the Raptors in their first match-up, and whoever gets the upper hand between these two point guards, their team will come out on top as well.
The Number
50.0
That's the field goal percentage that LeBron needs to shoot. In games where he does do better than that, the Cavaliers are 6-1. When he doesn't, they're 4-6. If Cleveland wants to win, it all depends on how well LeBron plays.
The Playlist
Why Cleveland will win:
It's pretty simple: if LeBron and Kyrie both bring their A-games, the Cavaliers are virtually unbeatable. Throw in the fact that Kevin Love has looked better (scratch the Knicks game) since the first Raptors game, might as well pack up and go home. The real key for the Cavaliers will be their bench, which squandered a 18-point lead in the last meeting. If they get some production out of Dion Waiters, who has struggled mightily this season, that will be enough for the Cavaliers to take their sixth straight win.
Why Toronto will win:
Remember Lou Williams? If not, you'll be reminded of him again this game. Win or lose, the Raptors bench will in fact out-score the Cavaliers, and will be led by the guy scored a career-high in last meeting against the Cavaliers. The bench was what won the first game, and will again be the main reason why the Raptors will win tonight.
The Prediction
Cleveland 107, Toronto 101
Although DeRozan's absence will be big, I don't think he'll be the reason the Raptors lose tonight. The Cavaliers have won five straight games, and have done so in different ways. A night after Kyrie stole the spotlight (even though it was always on him after it was announced he would have his own signature shoe with Nike), it will the LeBron Show north of the border, where I expect him to dominate and lead the Cavaliers to their sixth straight victory.
Just over a week ago, all looked well in The Land. LeBron James and Kyrie Irving were playing outstanding, Kevin Love wasn't too far behind and the offense was scoring points at a ridiculous rate. Since then, everything that could have went wrong, has went wrong. No one looks like they want to play with each other, the offense has went to shambles and the defense has been historically bad.
With people using a jackhammer on the panic button, they might just break it tonight, as the Cleveland Cavaliers face the Eastern Conference leading Toronto Raptors at home. If you thought last night was ugly, tonight might make you want to roll up in a ball and tell yourself "I think we need Mike Brown back" (please don't do this).
Two obvious things will happen tonight: the Cavs will win, or the Cavs will lose. But it is more than just the win-loss record that's important; it's the reaction from everyone else that will be on two distant ends of the spectrum. If the Cavs win, people will discredit any comments they made over the last week, and if they lose, the barrel fire takes will be so hot it might burn down the internet.
Toronto Raptors
Record: 10-2, first in the Eastern Conference
Offense: 110.3 offensive rating (2nd)
Defense: 99.7 defensive rating (7th)
The Good
- The North hasn't seen a force this strong since the Starks of Winterfell, and judging by the landscape of things, there are no Lannisters to stop the Raptors from continuing their dominance in the Eastern Conference. Right now, the Raptors are one of two teams to be in the top seven of both offensive and defensive rating (Portland, a team the Cavs have already played, are the other). You won't see a more complete team in the Eastern Conference.
- Just like the Washington Wizards, the Raptors are one of the best teams at forcing turnovers, where they rank third in opponent's turnover percentage. They can also turn those turnovers into points, scoring 19.7 points per game off of turnovers, third best in the NBA. One thing that differentiates Toronto and Washington, is that the Raptors don't give the ball up as much on offense, ranking second in turnover percentage. If the Cavs repeat their performance from last night on offense, things will get ugly.
- For as much as we talked about backcourt duos this off-season, not many people were willing to bring up Kyle Lowry and Demar DeRozan. This year, they have combined to average 38.4 points per game, second among backcourts to the Splash Brothers. I personally did not think Toronto would be nearly as good as they were last year, considering Lowry only plays well in contract years, but they have proven me wrong so far. The outcome of tonight's game will be determined by the play of this Canadian combo.
The Bad
- With a record of 10-2, it's hard to find something that this team does wrong. However, when you look at some of the numbers they've put up, it's kind of surprising they have the record they do. Assists percentage is one of them, where they rank 29th in the league, assisting on only 51.0 percent of their field goals. We talk about how bad the Cavs are with assists, but the Raptors are just as worse. No one talks about Lowry only averaging 5.8 assists per game as their lead ball handler, but everyone on this side of the moon knows exactly how many assists Kyrie has, despite being the second ball handler on the team.
- Rebounding is another aspect that the Raptors struggle at, ranking 23rd in the rebounding percentage. Facing a Cavs team that has three extremely good rebounders, this could be a big advantage for Cleveland. The Raptors only have one guy averaging at least six rebounds per game, whereas the Cavs have four guys who have at least that many rebounds per game. If the Cavs are able to control the glass, the defensive woes will get slightly better.
The Matchup to Watch
LeBron James vs. Adversity
Kyrie versus Lowry would be the ideal matchup to look forward to, but this one seems to be the biggest of them all considering what has happened over the last week. LeBron saw this same scrutiny during his first season in Miami, but that was completely different situation. There's no Dwyane Wade or Pat Riley to fall back on; LeBron is the guy on the Cavs team. I've said it before and I'll say it again: if the Cavs want to get things rolling, it starts with the man who took on this challenge in the first place.
The Playlist
This is one of the most obvious picks we will see all year. Nobody, and I literally mean nobody, has had more on an impact on "The 6" than Aubrey Drake Graham. Not only does he make music while representing Toronto, but he also works for the Raptors. Outside of Hov, he's the only person in professional sports that can make that claim (NSFW):
Why Toronto will win
It's pretty simple for Toronto: if they play like they have, it's gonna be very hard for them to lose this game. Lowry, who has seemingly had a chip on his shoulder since last year, will recreate Wall's performance against Cleveland, and will get some help from DeRozan, who is no slouch himself. The defense will force turnovers and turn them into points on the other end, being the difference between victory and defeat.
Why Cleveland will win
It starts with LeBron's play on the court. If has a game like he did against Boston and Atlanta, there is no way the Cavs should lose; but, if he plays like he did against Portland and Washington, it's gonna be hard for Cleveland to overcome his play. Controlling the glass will also be key. If the Cavs are able to get second and third opportunities to score, this should help jump start their offense back to its form of a week ago.
The Prediction
Toronto 101, Cavs 93
I'm not completely sold that things will just change overnight for the Cavs, considering they are playing a red hot Raptors team that is coming off of a 41-point shellacking against the Milwaukee Bucks. Four straight losses is not something many expected, but with the way each team has played this season, that could be the case for Cavs tonight, who will again have the turnover bug in a loss to Toronto.
